Ideas change everything

天气预报的准确率有多高？

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梦娜·凯乐贝 |

Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi

• November 2021

你正确时，没人会记得；但如果你错了，没人会忘记。你们当地的天气预报员对这句话的体会太深了。但是，虽然他们承受了很多压力（明白我的意思吗？），但有多少是真正合理的呢？在本期节目中，Mona Chalabi 通过观察天气预报数据，来看看这些预测到底有多准确，并告诉我们什么时候应该相信预报，什么时候不应该相信预报。想了解梦娜的更多节目吗？不妨看看她的播客《我这样做正常吗？》和 Mona Chalabi 的 TED 音频组集。

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Want to use TED Talks in your organization?

你正确时，没人会记得；但如果你错了，没人会忘记。你们当地的天气预报员对这句话的体会太深了。但是，虽然他们承受了很多压力（明白我的意思吗？），但有多少是真正合理的呢？在本期节目中，Mona Chalabi 通过观察天气预报数据，来看看这些预测到底有多准确，并告诉我们什么时候应该相信预报，什么时候不应该相信预报。想了解梦娜的更多节目吗？不妨看看她的播客《我这样做正常吗？》和 Mona Chalabi 的 TED 音频组集。

Want to use TED Talks in your organization?

About the speaker

Data journalist

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Mona Chalabi tries to take the numb out of numbers. She's left with lots of "ers."

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Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi

In this TED series, endlessly curious data journalist Mona Chalabi investigates the research behind tricky questions — with the help of creative data visualizations. Do I have enough friends? How accurate is weather reporting? Should it take me this long to get over my ex? And there's a podcast too! To dive deeper into these topics and more, follow Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi wherever you get your podcasts.

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